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Environment, Energy and Economies – A Canadian Primer
Ray Hamm, spring 2021

1 Introduction

2 Amazing World

3 Mother Earth is Catching a Fever

4 Mother Earth needs Help

5 Green House Gases (GHG) and Oil Companies

6 Oceans

7 Environment Energy and Economies (EEE)

8 Environment Energy and Economies in Canada

9 Canada in a Changing Climate

10 Canadian Agreements and Targets

11 International Agreements

12 Now

13 Change

14 Summary

1 INTRODUCTION

The climate, OUR climate, – the only one we have, is changing. This is very important in our world, in this home for the human family, in this home for our grandchildren. This is large and complicated, about environment, energy and the economy. Understanding some of this can help us take care of Mother Earth.

We are all in this together, being affected by it, reducing it or adapting to it – oil sands worker, activist on the street and all in between. Share the load, minimize the disruptions, at all levels – in families, cities and towns, provinces and country, and even globally. Take care of one another.

For the children and youth, for the children of tomorrow, we need to do everything we can for stability and security. Think about this at every level, from families to countries and more, fitting into a larger pattern. Seldom does trouble stay in only one corner of a lifeboat.

Flatten the curve. We can reduce and slow the change. Act together, locally and globally, to flatten and reduce the curve. Climate change, and the impacts, do not recognize nations or boundaries. Border closing does not help for this. We are all on the same street.

The goal is wholeness and wellbeing for all people AND for the Earth. The goal is right living and freedom for us AND for the children seven generations from now.

“The times, they are a changing” by Bob Dylan, from the 1960’s, speaks loudly today.

Sometimes Nature changes slowly. Sometimes things in Nature seem sudden and dramatic.

Consider water lilies in a pond. Suppose the water lilies double in size, in number, every day. In 30 days the surface of the pond is completely covered. On which day is the pond half covered, still half clear? Optimists must be careful here.

We are uncertain about how all the impacts of climate change will come, but it has begun. We can decrease the amount of change and the pace of the change.

Meteorologists and other scientists see significant differences between current weather climate patterns (one degree rise in average above 1880’s) and what the pattern might be with a 1.5 degree rise. There would be further significant steps with a 2 degree rise in average temperature.

For more details see
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/ (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA)
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations)
https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/ (Canada)

2 AMAZING WORLD

We live in an amazing and wonderful world. Think about the richness, diversity and abundance of life: a seed grows to produce a harvest, the colours on flowers or birds, sunrise, sunset, mountains and lakes. People are incredible. The wonder of a new born baby, the tiny fingers and so much more; look up at the immensity of the universe.

Amazing balance
How we can live here on our earth is almost too much to understand. The balance for life as we know it is incredible and we are learning that it can be changed. The earth receives approximately one billionth of the energy that the sun pours into space – just right for our life systems. From the sun, the earth is only a tiny speck in space. Sunlight goes everywhere. Some of the energy that comes to Earth is reflected back into space by clouds and ice, some is absorbed by oceans and land – just right for our life systems. Oceans and forests and plants breathe huge amounts of oxygen and carbon dioxide all the time – just right for our life systems. Marine life in the oceans produces approximately half the oxygen in our world. Natural ocean currents mix ice-cold water (from north and south poles) and warmer equatorial water and have maintained fairly constant temperatures for centuries – just right for our life systems.

Earth and energy
The earth receives a lot of energy from the sun. Earth receives more power from the sun in one or two hours than the entire world uses in one year. It used to be that energy received was just a bit more than energy reflected back into space – a good balance for our life. That pattern has been disturbed. Heavy, large-scale use of coal, natural gas, gasoline and other fossil fuel products has put enough extra carbon dioxide in the air to change the energy flow. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been mostly stable, for centuries, maybe even millennia. Since 1950 the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased dramatically. The level of CO2 is higher now than it was during the ice ages or during the recovery from the ice ages. Carbon dioxide in the air acts as an insulating blanket. Previous levels were a good balance to receive energy from the sun and to let enough heat back out. Now there is more “insulation” and more heat is staying on the earth rather than going back out into space. Light from the sun comes through the insulation blanket. This light heats things and in recent decades, more of this heat is blocked by the carbon insulation in the atmosphere, and so the overall average temperature gradually rises.

Extra heat and Climate
More than 95% of weather scientists, meteorologists, agree that human activity is a major factor (cause?) for this increase in heat and average global temperature. This has begun to affect climate, weather patterns and other aspects of life on our earth.

Take time to think about all the harmonies and balances for life as we know it within and around you. See yourself fitting into this, strengthening it.

3 MOTHER EARTH IS CATCHING A FEVER

Mother Earth is catching a fever. Body temperature is rising.

Our human bodies are incredible in so many ways. Among other things there is an average body temperature, in Canada or China or wherever: 37 C or 98.6 F When this changes, something may be wrong and out of balance.

Average Earth temperature now is almost 15 degrees C. (This is almost one C degree warmer than the 1950-1980 average.) Thousands of measurements are used for this. Beginning in the 1880’s, there were enough weather measurements to begin recording global averages. From 1880 to 1980, average global temperature increased by approximately one degree; that is one tenth of a degree per decade. Since 1980, the rate of temperature increase has more than doubled. These numbers are the baseline when there is talk of a temperature increase of 1 or 1.5 or 2 degrees.

These “small” changes are huge and important for our climate and environment.

Climate is our local weather – hot year, cool year, wet year, dry year, winds, seasons. Climate is also about global weather patterns.

Climate change is huge and complicated and very important, It is like a large ship on the ocean. It takes a long time to get going and it also takes a long time to turn or to stop. We have a large brick fireplace in the middle of our home. It takes a few fires before the bricks begin to radiate heat. And then, when all the bricks are warm, it takes hours and days after the last wood has burned for the brick structure to come back to room temperature.

WEATHER PATTERNS
Some things are changing already. There never used to be any thought of the Arctic Ocean being clear of ice. Now it is a question of when, not if. The large Arctic ice mass is an important part of reflecting heat back into space. There are more large wildfires, more extreme storms, heat waves have been more intense. Maybe these are normal weather fluctuations, but more and more meteorologists are saying this is part of the larger climate change. As the oceans absorb more carbon dioxide, the water becomes more acidic.

Some regions may benefit from a rising average temperature, up to a point. Growing seasons may get longer in some regions. Other regions will become unbearable. Precipitation may not be as predictable as it was. Ocean levels are rising, not a question of if, only how much. A two degree rise in average temperature would bring more dramatic changes.

Climate and the environment are intricately and solidly tied together. La Nina and El Nino – strong interactions between parts of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere – have major effects on weather in North America. The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, moving water from the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of North America to northern Europe, is slowing down. This affects water levels and weather patterns.

Imagine. Imagine ways to cool Earth by half a degree.

4 MOTHER EARTH NEEDS HELP

Some parts of Earth are getting overloaded and tired. Mother Earth needs help from some babysitters to take care of her children.

If you have a cat, you know there is litter box to take care of, or else a corner in the barn that needs to be cleaned out once in a while.

The time has come, there needs to be some caretaking, some cleaning up after human activity in our world. If Mother Earth is tired, who will carry and sustain us?

There has been enough human activity, especially the use of fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – to have a dramatic impact on the overall balance for life on Earth. Other sources of energy are available. Of course population has increased but the increase in energy use is way beyond this.

Everything we do, every activity, takes energy. Every time energy is used, there is some leftover, a footprint, some waste. (This is about energy. There are many other environmental impacts resulting from human activity.)

Fossil fuels came into large-scale use in the Industrial Revolution (1800’s). First it was coal and then oil and natural gas. Using these fuels produces green house gases (GHG). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main GHG. For a long time, Earth could process, clean up, this product of human activity. But in recent decades, the system is overloaded. Mother Earth needs help.

GHG act as insulation in the atmosphere and less heat from the earth escapes out into space. Light from the sun still gets in as usual, but heat cannot get out as usual. This heat is absorbed by the atmosphere, the oceans and the land. Gradually average temperature of the whole earth begins to rise. Conditions were relatively stable for decades, even centuries, but in the middle of the 20th century the level of CO2 in the atmosphere began increasing dramatically.

The earth and the climate are large and complicated. How it all works together is amazing. It takes time for the balance, the way it has always worked, to change. But change has begun. In the 1980’s, 30 years after the rapid rise in CO2 began, the rate of average temperature rise doubled from the previous century,

Young children are taught to clean up, to pick up, after themselves. Now we humans, especially in the advanced industrial societies, need to clean up after ourselves. Our ‘success’ has made trouble for us, for Earth. What is the news about landfills in your area?

For an excellent source of information about climate change, evidence, causes, effects, and solutions, go to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) https://climate.nasa.gov/ See also https://ourworldindata.org/

5 GREEN HOUSE GASES (GHG) AND OIL COMPANIES

The production and use of fossil fuels produces green house gases. GHG are a small number of chemicals which reduce the amount of heat the earth reflects back into space. When too much GHG gets into the atmosphere, it begins to make a difference. GHG make the earth warmer, like a greenhouse. Carbon, carbon dioxide, is the main factor in all this.

China produces 26% of global GHG. The US is at 15% Canada produces 2% of the total. Per capita GHG emissions are quite different. China is #12. Canada and the US are in the top five in per capita GHG emissions.

Coal continues to be “dirtier” than oil and natural gas. Tar sands oil is “dirtier” than regular oil – environmentally and economically more expensive. New technologies are improving some of the environmental impact.

Fossil fuel companies are among the top carbon dioxide emitters in the world. Twenty corporations are responsible for more than a third of total global emissions since 1965. (These lists are based on production, transportation and end use of the fuel; information taken from a project by The Guardian, October 2019.)

Top state owned emitters are Saudi Aramco, Gazprom (Russia), National Iranian Oil Company, Coal India, Pemex (Mexico).

Top investor owned emitters are Chevron (US), ExxonMobil (US), BP (UK), Royal Dutch Shell, Peabody (US). Shell has begun to shift to new energy. Chevron continues to pump oil for all its worth.

Oil Companies are among the largest entities in the world. Of the top 50 richest companies and corporations ranked by annual revenue in 2016, 6 were oil companies, 26 were countries and the other 18 were other corporations. (Canada was #9, just ahead of Walmart.)

THE OIL COMPANIES KNEW
Oil companies could see problems coming with continued and increasing production and use fossil fuels. Shell Oil produced A Climate of Concern in 1991, a movie about climate concerns arising from the use of fossil fuels. Other companies also knew about GHG concerns. Neither the companies, nor governments nor the pubic did anything. We loved our convenience and lifestyle. Oil companies loved their profits. Politicians wanted to be re-elected.

Find contact information for oil companies and write letters of inquiry and concern about the use of fossil fuels.

We should follow the science more than lifestyle and convenience. Our responsibility should impact our choices. Science has a good idea of how much more GHG can be pumped into the atmosphere before climate change goes too far. All new exploration and production should be stopped for the time being. There is more than enough carbon in the existing productions to surpass any emission limits, to surpass the carbon emission targets needed to control climate change.

6 OCEANS

A large portion of the heat of the earth is stored in the oceans. Oceans cover 70% of our world. Imagine warming such a huge bathtub of water. The new, extra heat is reducing the ice in our world – land ice in Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers, sea ice in the polar regions. The rate of loss of ice in Antarctica has tripled in the last 10 years. Sea levels rose eight inches in the last century. The rate of sea level rise is now double what it was in the last century.

The oceans are the foundation of our climate patterns. Near or far, our lives depend on healthy oceans. Oceans produce half of the oxygen in our world. The oceans are like a flywheel that keeps the motor running. Oceans are the primary source of food for millions in the world. The carbon dioxide content of the oceans is changing, the temperature of the oceans is changing. Marine life in the oceans is being affected. Changes in the ocean also increase the frequency and the intensity of more extreme weather systems.

Conservative estimates are that average ocean levels will rise between 2 and 3 feet (extra water from melting ice on land) by the end of this century – that is if all the plans to flatten the curve of climate change work well. If the plans do not work well, if there is not global cooperation, the water level will increase more than that. Many cities and some nations will literally disappear. Some Pacific Ocean nations are already planning for this. In any case, due to the large amount of increased heat in the oceans already, ocean levels will continue to rise for decades, even centuries.

More than one third of the world’s population lives within 60 miles of ocean coastline. 600 million people live in areas less than 30 feet above sea level. They are within easy reach of storms and sea surges. The social and economic impacts of these combinations will be huge before the end of this century.

Melting ice floating in oceans will hardly affect water levels (there will be other consequences – less heat is reflected back into space and this adds to the warming). When land ice on Antarctica and Greenland melts, this has a major impact on ocean levels. When water warms, it expands slightly. When whole oceans expand slightly, it makes a significant difference.

Cities on river deltas, many Asian cities, cities on the US East and Gulf coast will face many problems. 4 out 5 people affected by sea level rise will be in East or South East Asia. New York, Miami, New Orleans and many other cities are already having major water incidents. A century or two ago, cities on river deltas on ocean coasts were centres for tremendous cultural and economic activity. Now they will be centres of water and climate troubles.

Why the east coast? Turns out the Gulf Stream is slowing down. Water is not being moved away from the east coast as fast as it was in the past. The water level is rising, apart from any new or extra water in the oceans. This major natural current from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic to Europe and then back again has slowed. This current mixes warmer equatorial water and colder Arctic water. It is a major factor in eastern US and European weather. It is part of the balance in the life patterns on our earth and it is changing.

Marine life is affected by changes in temperature and water chemistry. Millions depend on the ocean for food. Coral reefs are dying, breaking down.

By the end of this century, there will be millions of climate refugees resulting from rising ocean levels, extreme heat or droughts. This will happen even if current climate targets are met. If plans do not go well, the results will be more drastic.

Watch the oceans carefully – temperature, ocean levels and ocean currents, melting ice, especially from Antarctica and Greenland.

7 ENVIRONMENT ENERGY AND ECONOMIES (EEE)

Energy and environment and economy have always been tied together. The present world economy is built on cheap energy, on not paying the real cost. Ending slavery removed an earlier major source of cheap energy. This brought major turmoil.

Peak oil production, running out of oil, was a concern some years ago. Now with new technologies and shale oil and tar sands oil, there is plenty of oil. This is good because there will probably continue to essential needs for oil in industry and society in the future. The REAL concern is about what happens to climate for us and for the children of tomorrow if we continue to use fossil fuels at the present rate. GHG and single use plastics are not good gifts to our children.

Extracting, mining, refining, transporting energy takes energy. Always there is some loss, some waste and some by-products. Using energy drives the economy, it drives our cars and there are byproducts. Using coal, oil, gasoline and diesel fuel produces carbon. For a long, long time, things were fine. It seems that after 1950, there has been too much, too fast.

With proven oil reserves of 170 billion barrels, Canada stands in third position in the world, with a 9.8% share of the global oil resource, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and just ahead of Iran and Iraq.
Canada produces 2% of global GHG. The oil sands account for 12% of Canadian GHG, that is approx 0.25% of global GHG/
Oil sands deposits in the province of Alberta account for approx 97% of Canadian oil reserves. The province also holds a considerable amount of conventional oil resources. The oil sands accounted for 63% of Canada’s oil production in 2019. The oil sands have an estimated $325 billion of capital investment to date, including $10.2 billion in 2019.
For conventional oil, for most oil up to this point, for energy production, the average return on energy invested is 25 to 1. For oil from the Canadian tar sands it is very different. Extracting, upgrading and refining tar sands oil has a return of 10 to 1, according to Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. When measured by US and international standards, this goes down to 1.1 to 1. Underground mining of the tar sands is much less energy efficient than surface mining. (Be careful of definitions and time periods when reading reports from different agencies. It needs to be recognized that there are different ‘mines’ and different technologies, different efficiencies.)

Do not listen to or be taken in by talk of carbon capture. Current technology can provide only a small bucket for the volume to be removed. It is like the oil industry promoting recycling. It is a good and necessary idea but they knew from the start that is was not a feasible (economic) solution to plastic pollution, In the meantime, it seemed like action and it allowed delay and denial. Carbon capture is good but be realistic about what is needed and what carbon capture can achieve.

Do not look to current nuclear technology for answers. Nuclear waste is already a problem in our world.

Plain and simple, we must reduce use of fossil fuels NO new exploration, no new wells, no expansion of the oil sands. NO delays.

To change direction for the fossil fuel industry in Canada and in the world will take a lot of political will and money. The global, international, picture is huge. To turn this ship is hard, but necessary and critical. Imagine better ways. Hunger and thirst for better ways. Create public support for government and industrial initiatives to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

8 ENVIRONMENT ENERGY AND ECONOMIES IN CANADA

A few companies account for more than half of Canada’s crude oil production: Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus. (Husky and Cenovus have recently combined. Hong Kong billionaire, Li Ka-shing will hold approx 27% of the new Cenovus.) The oil industry in Canada has taken a hit. Larger external factors are more significant than pipeline delays and environmental regulations. (For example: international oil prices collapsed.)
If Canada would reduce production of petroleum, one of the first options should be to shut down the oil sands in Alberta.

Why start with the oil sands? why not share cutbacks across the country?

The oil sands produce 12% of Canadian Green House gases. Even with newer technology the GHG production of the oil sands is increasing every year due to increasing petroleum production.

It costs more energy to produce a barrel of oil from the oil sands than from other sources. Oil sands technology has gotten more efficient but it is still not near international averages for petroleum production.

The environmental impact on land and water of mining petroleum in the tar sands is huge, It is true that Alberta has very stringent regulations for these operations – very nice. But it is even more true that they do not enforce them and there is not even a theoretical solution to returning the land and the water to its original state. The tailing ponds (waste from the mining) are HUGE and getting larger, there are too many chemicals in the sludge. Water used in the oil sands can be reused, but only small amounts of this water can be returned to the natural cycle. Macleans did an excellent article in October 2019, “Scrubbing the oil sands’ record,” sorting through the different ‘facts.’

There would be many and far reaching consequences of shutting down or even just reducing oil sands production of crude oil.

Crude oil is 47% of Canadian energy production (if uranium is excluded – that is the international standard). Tar sands produce 63% of Canadian crude; Alberta produces 80% of Canadian crude.

Currently Canadian crude oil is 22% of US refinery intake – that means oil sands oil is approximately 10% of US refineries. Canada would have to juggle internal needs and external trade. Crude oil brings approx $90 billion annually to Canada’s trade balance.

Petroleum is 5% of the Canadian GDP More than half of this is from production in Alberta

The energy industry – petroleum, natural gas, electricity, coal, renewables – provide almost 5% of the jobs in Canada, again with a large portion in Alberta.

If the oils sands reduce and shut down production, companies ( and governments) would be walking away from billions of dollars in investments $325 billion has been invested to date. That is a lot, but consider the context. From Offshore Technology: Top ten oil and gas company annual revenues, #1, $424 billion, down to #10, $140 billion. Some major global investment firms and international insurance companies are pulling back from the petroleum industry.

So yes, reduce production of fossil fuels, reduce production of oil sands petroleum/crude oil. Share the load. Plan for a 3-5 year transient period. Start now!
This is only one piece of the industry in one country. Imagine the international interconnections of the fossil fuel industries.

We must do this. We can do this, for our grandchildren and for the Earth.

(Information here is taken from government web sites – Natural Resources and others.. On the natural resources home page, you may need to do some internet searching with specific questions about emissions, economy etc. Look for nrcan.gc in the web address line. Be careful or at least be aware that information from Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) or Canadian Energy Centre (CEC) also known as Energy War Room (in Calgary) on the one hand, and , on the other hand, the International Institute for Sustainable Development or the International Monetary Fund may have different numbers, different pictures.)

9 CANADA IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action is a reader friendly government report. The bold print below is taken from a chapter on headline statements. One chapter is an executive summary. And there are chapters with more information on all of these points. The full report is available at
https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/

Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action is the national assessment of how and why Canada’s climate is changing, the impacts of these changes on our communities, environment, and economy, and how we are adapting.

Released in 2019, this report is about how and why Canada’s climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. Led by Environment and Climate Change Canada, it is the first report to be released as part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action.

Canada’s climate has warmed and will warm further in the future, driven by human influence.
Both past and future warming in Canada is, on average, about double the magnitude of global warming.
Oceans surrounding Canada have warmed, become more acidic, and less oxygenated, consistent with observed global ocean changes over the past century.
The effects of widespread warming are evident in many parts of Canada and are projected to intensify in the future.
Precipitation is projected to increase for most of Canada, on average, although summer rainfall may decrease in some areas.
The seasonal availability of freshwater is changing, with an increased risk of water supply shortages in summer.
A warmer climate will intensify some weather extremes in the future.
Canadian areas of the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans have experienced longer and more widespread sea-ice-free conditions.
Coastal flooding is expected to increase in many areas of Canada due to local sea level rise.
The rate and magnitude of climate change under high versus low emission scenarios project two very different futures for Canada.

10 CANADIAN AGREEMENTS AND TARGETS

A new Canadian Climate Accountability Act was introduced in November 2020, Healthy Environment and Healthy Economy, in December 2020. The Pan Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate was brought out in July 2020 – developed with the provinces and territories and in consultation with Indigenous peoples – to meet our emissions reduction targets, grow the economy, and build resilience to a changing climate.

These look like good plans and projections. We can only hope that it will all work. One needs to look fairly deep to see specific numbers, there are a few. For the next 5 years, most of Canada is to be decreasing emissions or holding steady; Alberta is still projected to be increasing GHG emissions. It is hard to find specific numbers and goals among all the good words in these new plans. Time will tell, actual numbers over time, will show the real story.

Canada has a mixed record. At a 1992 UN conference, Canada was seen as a leader. This did not last long. In 2009, Canada was part of a G-20 agreement to end all subsidies to fossil fuel industries; this is still only partially implemented. In 2002, Canada was part of the Kyoto protocol, agreeing to reduce GHG emissions 6% below 1990 levels by 2012. By 2010 Canadian emissions had increased by 30% over 1990 levels. (The US and China were not part of Kyoto ) Canada withdrew in 2011. A Copenhagen agreement in 2009 called for a 17% reduction in GHG emissions from 2005 to 2020. The emission level in Canada has been constant since 2005. There was a large decrease when Ontario closed its last coal-fired electricity generating plants in 2014. But Alberta kept producing more oil, particularly tar sands oil. Most of the production of this oil has a higher environmental cost than other types of oil; newer plants are doing better.

The current federal government is passing hopeful legislation. (Change is hard particularly when we all, all societies, are addicted to cheap energy.) There are cabinet level positions for environment and climate change in the federal gov’t and opposition parties.

60% of Canada’s electricity comes from renewable sources. In Manitoba and Quebec more than 95% of electricity is hydro electricity. (First Nations communities have some stories to tell about this.)

Generating electricity by burning coal is decreasing (43% of Alberta electricity still comes from coal burning!!)

In 2018-19, federal and provincial gov’t and industry spent approximately one billion dollars on hydrocarbon energy research and development, and just over 900 million on R&D for renewable energy sources. More than half of these amounts came from industry.

Focus, focus!
in addition to all the nice words and high sounding rhetoric about goals, specific actions are needed SOON, not in 5 or 10 years. Great pronouncements were made in spring, 2021 – reduce emissions 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. Canada has some good sounding legislation but Canada has not met any of its climate goals in the last 20 years!! International science panels are saying that current goals, Paris agreement goals, will not keep average global temperature below 2° C. Meteorologist agree that anything more than a 2°C rise in average global temperature would bring dramatic negative consequence for the oceans and world climate patterns.

Yes, Canada has a carbon tax. But also in Canada the oil and gas industry receives over $3 billion (some cash and mostly tax breaks) in subsidies ANNUALLY. (Search for Cdn gov’t subsidies to oil and gas.) Approximately half of this is in and by Alberta. Already in 2009 Canada as part of the G20 agreed to stop subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. Not much has happened yet. So there is a carbon tax, but on the other hand the industry is being “paid” almost $20/tonne to pollute. STOP the subsidies. Use these funds to move jobs and the economy to other energy sources. Ontario has already shut down all coal-fired electricity production.

Further, there must be reduction and shutting down production. This is a delicate and critical task. Much of this reduction will need to be in Alberta and there is already a lot of talk of “western alienation.” There are bad memories and myths about a national energy policy fifty years ago. Children yet unborn need us to act now.

11 INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AGREEMENTS AND CURRENT PATTERNS

In 1988, the United Nations (UN) created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide governments with scientific information to develop climate polices.

In 1989, the Montreal protocol led to control and decrease of ozone depleting substances This was “successful” – we do not hear much about ozone and the ozone hole anymore.

Already in 1994 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (from the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, 1992) called for reducing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. Not much happened. There are annual follow up meetings, called Conference of Parties (participating countries) (COP).

Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, came into force 2005 (when enough countries adopted it) called for reducing GHG emissions 5% below 1990 by 2012. Non-industrial countries were exempted to allow them to develop and catch up with better living conditions. The US was never part of this international agreement. Canada withdrew in 2011.

Emission production from 1990 to 2011: China increased by 200%!! Middle East 171%! India 144%! Canada 20%! US 7%. Russia decreased by 36%, Germany 21%, Britain 15% (from University of Wisconsin, Geography and Environmental Studies.)

The Paris Agreement, 2015, a climate change mitigation treaty, came from COP21. Countries are to set targets and share annual progress reports. This was to “flatten the curve.” to reduce and adapt to damages from climate change.

The goal was to keep the rise in global average temperature to less than 2 degrees above average temperatures in the 1880’s (before the Industrial Era and heavy use of fossil fuels); an optimistic target was to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. Already now average temperature is 1 degree warmer than the pre-Industrial average. A fund was established to help developing countries adapt to climate change.

It is very likely that current targets and projections will result in average temperature increase of more than 2 degrees. The probability is high that by mid-century the average temperature rise may already be 1.5 degrees. Current patterns will lead to a rise of 3.2 degrees by 2100. The top 10 fossil fuel producing countries are producing more than double the amount of oil, gas and coal that would keep us within 1.5 degrees. A few, but only a few, of the large global asset managers (trillions of dollars) are switching away from fossil fuels. China is building many new coal-fired electricity-generating plants. The number of weather climate disasters causing $1 billion or more in damages has risen dramatically since 2010. The insurance industry needs to be prepared for more. (From 2019 article in HuffPost – reports to COP25, Madrid, the twenty-fifth annual international UN consultation.)

Meteorologists and other scientists see significant differences between current weather climate patterns (one degree rise in average above 1880’s) and what the pattern might be with a 1.5 degree rise. There would be further significant steps with a 2 degree rise in average temperature. For more details see
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/
https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/

TO FLATTEN THE CURVE
Massive government interventions will be needed to keep the rise in average temperature below two degrees. and this will need to be more immediate than present (national and international) plans.
Broad public awareness and support will be critical.

Call on all levels of government to act together to reduce use of fossil fuels, including rapid reduction of subsidies and tax breaks for exploration and production of fossil fuels
Call on all countries to act together to reduce use of fossil fuels, to reduce GHG emissions even more than present targets,
Especially call for China, the US and India to close down all coal-fired electricity- generating plants
Find more ways to harness and use renewable energy
Call on financial asset managers to transfer resources form fossil fuel industries to renewable energy. Support Research Development and Delivery of renewable energy.

We can do this. There is global international political ideological cooperation in response to the covid pandemic. Similar imagination and action, and more, is needed to minimize the change in climate.

12 Now

In most ways Canada is a small player in the global climate and environment picture but we need to take care of our own house, to keep our air clean.

NOW is the time. Move! Change direction! Shift gears!

Create the social, political, will to act on climate change. Encourage all levels of government to move faster into renewable energy. Drive less, drive a little slower. Plant gardens and trees. Do these things to create a legacy fund for the children of tomorrow.

Oil prices are low, the economy has slowed down — that means consumption has declined. (It is really unfortunate that in the present national and global systems, a healthy economy needs continually increasing consumption and consumerism.)

Due to the Covid pandemic, governments are pumping huge amounts of money into the economy. The children of tomorrow cannot afford more of the same. They cannot afford for society to patch up and continue current patterns. Rather than propping up current systems, use these funds to start new directions.

NOW is the time.

Governments need to come clean. There are strong regulations on the sale of tobacco because of damaged lives and the health costs. There are taxes on carbon production – that is a good step. At the same time there are subsidies, tax incentives, for more exploration and oil production. Stop all subsidies to fossil fuel. Act for the children, not for fossil fuel corporations. Help the corporations change, but no more of the same old patterns and production.

End all government subsidies to fossil fuel industries. End all coal burning for generating electricity. If China, India and US would end the use of coal for electricity it would be a Huge benefit for the Earth, for us all.

Encourage more, ask for more, public guidelines and targets, active and enforceable. Most of the present goals and targets are not enough to get us where our children need us to be.

Watch, listen, for news about oceans and glaciers. Especially about the land ice in the Antarctic and Greenland.

13 Change

CHANGE is a big word in all of this.
The Climate is changing.
Personal and social change is needed.
Changing can be tough. If change involves reducing or downsizing, it is even harder.
Freedom gets in the middle of it. And responsibility.

Understanding the reasons makes accepting change easier; it may not be easy but understanding helps. I am learning to avoid refreshment coolers in service stations and stores. Most drinks are in plastic bottles – I am trying not to buy plastics that are used only once.

Understanding and controlling ourselves reduces the need for public or social control; voluntary change is much easier than forced change. May not be easy but at least easier.

Even so, there will need to be wise and widespread government involvement in regulating public life, in economic and social life. Justice and freedom are important. Politicians, we all, need to think of the grandchildren, of children yet unborn; think farther than the next election.

Changes in transportation are critical – more electric; more public less private transportation; drive less drive slower; and more. We are very addicted to personal/private mobility.

Fossils fuels must be reduced and almost completely eliminated. – an incredible economic change.

Energy efficiency has been improving, more is needed

This is and will be the experience of climate change. If we, individuals, nations, corporations, act on what is known, there will be less need for government rules.

Follow the science, be careful. There are and will be many versions of “truth” put forward.

On the one hand, there is a LOT of money and powerful status quo involved here, in carrying on as is. AND we , especially in the more prosperous nations, are used to personal convenience and our current lifestyles. On the other hand, we can build a more secure future for the children of tomorrow. Creativity and imagination is needed; a hunger for a new way. Continuing the “normal” will lead to dramatic trouble for the grandchildren.

This will be an important and critical dance, a balancing act, with freedom and responsibility. (Find “Don’t ever take away my freedom” by Peter Yarrow.)

The pandemic has taught us, showed us, some of the benefits of political, ideological and economic co-operation. The pandemic burst into our world, Science, industries, governments responded. There will be no vaccine for climate change. Climate laughs at closed borders. Social and economic change can reduce the pace and impact of climate change.

We want to give good gifts to our children, to the children seven generations from now. A clean and secure environment and stable climate is one of the best gifts we can give.

Let us unite, let us hold each other tightly, let us merge our hearts, let us create — so long as the warmth of this earth endures, so long as no earthquakes, cataclysms, icebergs or comets come to destroy us — let us create for Earth a brain and a heart, let us give a human meaning to the superhuman struggle.
from The Saviors of God, 1923, Nikos Kazantzakis (quote from a totally different time and context, but it fits.)

14 Summary

The world is so large and we are so small. There are climate clouds in the sky.
All of us – Canadian or Russian, American or Chinese – each and every one of us wants a secure and stable world for our children now, and also for the children of tomorrow.

The climate of the whole earth is changing. The earth weather forecasts are predicting change. Storms, more intense storms, cities and people near oceans having water trouble, larger wildfires, droughts, melting glaciers and ocean ice – these are already here and seem to be increasing. On the global level, 2010 to 2020 is the warmest decade on record. 2020 and 2016 are tied for the warmest year on record.

More than 95% of global meteorologists believe that human activity is a major factor in causing these changes. The production of green house gases (GHG) is the main factor, mostly from the use of coal, oil (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel) and natural gas. Carbon dioxide is the main green house gas.

The Paris Agreement, 2015, set a target for limiting the rise in average global temperature to 2 degrees above preindustrial levels. (The global average now is already 1 degree warmer than it was in the 1800’s.) 197 countries endorsed this. 189/190 countries have given this formal approval. (US ??) Most countries have submitted national emission targets to meet this goal. A recent published analysis suggests that these emission targets need to be increased by 80% for the world to have a 50% chance of meeting this temperature target.

China (25%), United States (15%), India (7%), Russia (5%) and Japan (4%) are the top producers of GHG. Canada is at 2%. In per capita production of GHG, the US and Canada are in the top 5, China is #12. If China and the US and India would stop burning coal to produce electricity, that would take care of a large part of this problem. Coal is ‘dirtier’ than other fossil fuels. (Ontario shut down its last coal fired generating station in 2014,)

Climate change is a huge thing for the whole world and Canada is so small. Even so, there are things for us to do.

1 Understanding is a first step Huge sums of money and very large corporations are involved. Read very carefully. The Alberta government presents positive information about oil and gas, and that’s fair. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and the Canadian Energy Centre (CEC – the “Energy War Room” financed by Alberta) present different and even more positive pictures of the petroleum industry. Search carefully for accuracy in the middle of vested interests and half-pictures, half-truths. Watch out for statistics.

2 Increase, speed up, emission reduction targets. Listen to science, not rhetoric and convenience. Not in 10 or 20 years, but NOW. Even though many governments have stated good sounding goals and policies, international science panels say current patterns and goals will not meet the climate targets.

3 Clean up our own backyard. Take care of one another. (Remember all the language about ‘we are in this together’ from the Covid pandemic. All that and more is needed here.) Strange that almost half of the electricity in Alberta still comes from coal. Strange that in Canada we have a carbon tax on the one hand and, on the other hand, huge subsidies and tax breaks encouraging more exploration and production of oil and gas. (In 2009, the G-20 countries, including Canada, agreed to end fossil fuel subsidies.)

4 Pay the true costs of energy – economic and environmental. I’m sorry Alberta. Leave the tar sands oil in the ground for now. There is more than enough oil in the existing global systems to carry us past all climate carbon targets. This would obviously be a hit on the Alberta economy and even on the Canadian economy. Do this for our grandchildren. Share the load.

5 The oil companies knew decades ago that ever increasing use of fossil fuels would lead to a climate problem. In 1991, Shell Oil produced a video, “A Climate of Concern.” Somehow no one did much about it – corporations, governments, society and culture, no one. Most did not know and we do enjoy our comfort and lifestyle. The price may be coming due. Companies and executives should be held accountable, as was the case for tobacco companies.

6 Not only clean up our own house (and ask others to do the same) but Move Forward. For better or worse, the global pandemic has a huge impact on economies and government spending. Use the public funds to change from dependence on fossil fuels to renewable energies. NOW is the time. Find ways to maintain comfortable secure lifestyles and economies with different energies and less cost to the environment. Be a leader. Share this with others who can only dream of attaining our standard of living.